Multimodel Forecasting and Sustainable Strategy Development for China’s Pet Industry in a Global Context

DOI: https://doi.org/10.62517/jbdc.202501404

Author(s)

Zhuoxian Hong, Xintong Liang, Jiaxi Xing, Zhenting Chen*

Affiliation(s)

School of Artificial Intelligence, Guangzhou Huashang College, Guangzhou, Guangdong, China *Corresponding Author

Abstract

The global pet industry has experienced rapid expansion, creating an urgent need for comprehensive market analysis and forecasting to guide strategic decision-making and resource allocation. This study provides a multifaceted examination of pet industry development, with particular focus on China's market dynamics and global integration. The analysis employs advanced visualization techniques, including area charts, line graphs, and pie charts, to examine the evolution of China’s pet industry by species over a five-year period. Key growth drivers are identified, including household penetration rates, owner demographics, and macroeconomic factors. ARIMA modeling projects populations of 67.63-64.33 million cats and 52.89-52.95 million dogs over the next three years. Globally, 3D stereograms and comparative charts reveal species-specific growth patterns. GM(1,1) modeling forecasts pet food sales reaching 133.96-154.69 billion in the coming three years. For China's pet food sector, ensemble regression models predict domestic production values of 235.7-281.9 billion yuan, while linear regression estimates exports at 26.3-33.7 billion yuan. A novel analytical model quantifies effects of tariffs, exchange rates, trade barriers, and infrastructure on exports. The framework provides both predictive analytics and sustainable development strategies. These findings offer valuable insights for stakeholders across the pet industry value chain, while contributing methodological advances to academic literature on market forecasting and industry analysis.

Keywords

ARIMA; GM (1,1); LinearRegression; ElasticNetCV; XGBRegressor; VotingRegressor; Custom Function Prediction Model

References

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