Analysis of the Impact of the “Insurance & Futures” Model on the Price Fluctuation of China's Pig Market_Vol. 1 No. 3 (JBM 2024)_Journal of Business and Marketing (ISSN: 3005-5717)

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Analysis of the Impact of the “Insurance & Futures” Model on the Price Fluctuation of China's Pig Market

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DOI: https://doi.org/10.62517/jbm.202409313

Author(s)

Yuxuan Liu, Liming Chen*

Affiliation(s)

College of Economics and Management, China Agricultural University, Beijing, China *Corresponding Author.

Abstract

The market price cyclical fluctuation and oscillation "pig cycle" is a typical economic phenomenon in the pig market. In this paper, we use the coefficient of variation method and ARIMA (Auto-Regressive, Integrated, Moving Average) time-series method to analyse the weekly data of local breed pigs, domestic hybrid pigs, exotic hybrid pigs and hog price indexes from 2019 to 2023, and empirically analyse the impact of the "insurance + futures" model on the price of hogs to empirically analyse the degree of influence of the "insurance+futures" model on the volatility of hog prices. It is found that the price change trends of local breed pigs, domestic hybrid pigs, and exotic hybrid pigs are similar, and the "insurance + futures" model has a significant impact on the price fluctuation of exotic hybrid pigs, a weak impact on the price fluctuation of local breed pigs, and a non-significant impact on the price fluctuation of domestic hybrid pigs. During the pilot practice of the "insurance + futures" model, the price volatility of the three types of pigs increased significantly, and the overall pig price showed a downward trend.

Keywords

Pig Price Insurance; Hogs Futures; Price Fluctuations; Time Series Analysis

References

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