Prediction of Long-term Care Insurance Enrollment Trends Based on the GM (1,1) Model in the Context of Population Aging: A Case Study of Kunming

DOI: https://doi.org/10.62517/jmhs.202405316

Author(s)

Xiaoyu Qi#, Ye Lu#,*, Qunjun Yu#

Affiliation(s)

Kunming Medical University, Yunnan, Kunming, China #Co-first Author *Corresponding Author.

Abstract

This study aims to forecast the trend of long-term care insurance enrollment in Kunming from 2024 to 2027, with the goal of supporting strategic planning and providing a scientific basis for decision-making to address the challenges of population aging. Using the GM (1, 1) grey model, predictions were made based on enrollment data from 2021 to 2023 for long-term care insurance and basic medical insurance for urban employees. The forecast results show a steady increase in long-term care insurance enrollees, expected to reach 2.21 million by 2027, while urban employee basic medical insurance enrollment is projected to rise to 2.73346 million. The GM (1, 1) grey model effectively predicts future trends in long-term care insurance enrollment, highlighting the system's role in mitigating the impact of an aging population. It is recommended that relevant departments emphasize the development of long-term care insurance in policy planning and enhance the related policies to ensure both effectiveness and sustainability.

Keywords

Long-term Care Insurance; GM (1, 1) Grey Model; Population Aging; Health Insurance Policy; Enrollment Forecast

References

[1] National Health Commission et al. Notice on Printing and Distributing the "14th Five-Year Plan" for Healthy Aging: Document No. 4. (2022-02-07) [2021-05-18]. https://www.gov.cn/zhengce/zhengceku/2022/03/01/content_5676342.htm [2] National Healthcare Security Administration and Ministry of Finance. Guiding Opinions on Expanding the Pilot Long-Term Care Insurance System: Document No. 37. (2020-09-16) [2024-05-18]. http://www.nhsa.gov.cn/art/2020/9/16/ art_37_3586.html [3] Kunming Development and Reform Commission. Economic Operation in Kunming for 2023. https://fgw.km.gov.cn/c/2024-01-31/ 4827242. shtml. 2024-01-31 [4] Kunming Statistics Bureau. Main Data Bulletin of Kunming's Permanent Population for 2023. (2024-04-07) [2024-05-18]. https://tjj.km.gov.cn/c/2024-04-07. [5] Kunming Medical Insurance Bureau and Kunming Finance Bureau. Implementation Measures for Kunming’s Long-Term Care Insurance (Trial). (2023-07-09) [2024-05-18]. https://czj.km.gov.cn/c/2023-09-05/4772333.shtml [6] Deng, J. L. Theory and Methods of Social Economic Grey Systems. Social Sciences in China, 1984, (06): 47-60. [7] Liu, S. F. Emergence, Development, and Frontier Dynamics of Grey System Theory. Journal of Zhejiang Wanli University, 2003, (04): 19-22. [8] Li, Z. X., and Yan, Y. L. Research on the Development of Community Health Services Based on Grey Prediction Models. Chinese Journal of Medical Management Science, 2021, 11 (02): 17-22. [9] Yang, C. D., Zhang, Y., and Wang, Y. Improvement and Application of the Grey Prediction Model GM(1,1). Journal of Shangluo University, 2021, 35 (02): 48-52. DOI:10.13440/j.slxy.1674-0033.2021.02.009. [10] Zhou, J., and Ma, S. P. SPSSAU Research Data Analysis Methods and Applications, 1st Edition. Electronic Industry Press, 2024. [11] Zheng, X. P., Tong, X., Wu, C. N., et al. Policy Analysis and Reflection on the Two Phases of Long-Term Care Insurance Pilot Cities. Medicine and Society, 2022, 35 (09): 110-115. DOI:10.13723/j.yxysh.2022.09.021. [12] Dai, W. D., Wang, Q. G., Zhu, R. C., et al. Characteristics, Problems, and Path Optimization of Long-Term Care Insurance Pilot Policies—Based on Comparative Analysis of Policies in 29 Pilot Cities. China Soft Science, 2022, (10): 41-50. [13] Qi, C. X. Research on the Sustainable Development of Long-Term Care Insurance in the Context of Medical and Nursing Integration—A Case Study of Hebei Province. China Medical Insurance, 2023, (12): 77-83. DOI:10.19546/j.issn.1674-3830.2023.12. 010. [14] Zheng, X. P., Tong, X., Wu, C. N., et al. Policy Analysis and Reflection on the Two Phases of Long-Term Care Insurance Pilot Cities. Medicine and Society, 2022, 35 (09): 110-115. DOI: 10.13723/j.yxysh.2022. 09.021. [15] Porter, M. E. A Strategy for Health Care Reform—Toward a Value-Based System. New England Journal of Medicine, 2009, 361(2): 109-112. [16] Deng, Q. W., Wei, Y., and Chen, Y. Y. Supply and Demand Analysis and Recommendations for Long-Term Care Insurance in China. Medicine and Society, 2023, 36 (01): 87-92. DOI: 10.13723/j.yxysh.2023.01.016.