Fertility and Female Labor Supply: Evidence from USA IPUMS of 2009, 2010, and 2014

DOI: https://doi.org/10.62517/jmsd.202412432

Author(s)

Yining Gao, Yanhuan Qiu

Affiliation(s)

School of Mathematics, Sichuan University of Arts and Science, Dazhou, Sichuan, China

Abstract

This paper investigates the effect of fertility on female labor supply using U.S. IPUMS data from 2009, 2010, and 2014, replicating the approach of Angrist and Evans’s study. This paper utilizes the sex composition of the first two children as an instrumental variable to address the endogeneity of fertility decisions. Results indicate a negative relationship between having a third child and women's labor force participation, hours worked, and income. While these findings align with previous research, some variables—such as annual income—are less significant in the recent data. Additionally, the analysis extends to examine the relationship between fertility and husbands’ labor supply, finding a smaller but still notable negative effect on their participation and working hours. Overall, the results suggest that fertility continues to impact female labor supply more strongly than male labor supply, with demographic shifts and evolving family dynamics contributing to variations in labor market outcomes. This paper concludes with a discussion of the limitations and implications for future research, particularly considering changing societal norms and economic conditions.

Keywords

Fertility; Female Labor Supply; Instrumental Variables; Labor Participation; Family Size; Two-Stage Least Squares

References

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