Research on Urbanization Rate Trend in China Various Regions

DOI: https://doi.org/10.62517/jmsd.202612116

Author(s)

Chengshuo Zhao1,2, Wen Yu1,3,4,5,*

Affiliation(s)

1Agricultural Information Institute, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing, China 2Graduate School of Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing, China 3Key Laboratory of Agricultural Information Service Technology, Ministry of Agriculture, Beijing, China 4Key Laboratory of Intelligent Agricultural Early Warning Technology and System, Beijing, China 5Beijing Engineering Research Center for Agricultural Monitoring and Early Warning, Beijing, China *Corresponding Author

Abstract

The urbanization rate serves as one of the key indicators for measuring a country's stage and level of development. Forecasting the urbanization prospects of China's provinces facilitates the formulation of national regional development strategies by relevant authorities, while also plays a significant role in promoting coordinated economic and social progress. This article uses Stata software and the relevant data released by the National Bureau of Statistics Data Center, selects the urbanization rate time series data of 31 provinces in country from 1990 to 2024, establishes an ARIMA model of urbanization rate and time, and predicts 2025 to 2040 the change trend of urbanization rate in various regions. The analysis categorizes provinces and municipalities into six major regions for examination. Data shows that, with the exception of a few regions, urbanization rates across most areas are projected to reach 70% around 2030 and exceed 80% by 2040. Overall, urbanization rates across all regions will continue to grow, but uneven development persists between regions, particularly in the western regions. Relevant departments should formulate development strategies based on the actual conditions of urbanization, ensuring sustainable and healthy development while promoting coordinated urban-rural growth.

Keywords

Urbanization Rate; Forecast; ARIMA Model; Policy; China

References

[1] Guan W., Wu X. & Li H., et al. (2025). Evolution and mechanism of China’s regional urbanization pattern. Geographical Science, 45(2), 265-277. [2] Pan H. & Yan W. (2025). Research on the impact effect of digital economy on high-quality development from the perspective of new urbanization. Journal of Lanzhou University of Finance and Economics, 1-25. https://link.cnki.net/urlid/62.1213.F.20240318.1802.040 [3] Feng M. (2025). Prospective research on major changes in industrialization, urbanization, and population structure during next period. Social Sciences Digest, 05, 11-13. [4] Wu Y. (2025). Sustained improvement of rural livelihoods in China’s urbanization. Chinese Rural Economy, 04, 3-19. [5] Li Y., Feng Z., & Liu Y., et al. (2025). Urbanization and living environment on the health status of the elderly population in China. Geographical Science, 45(2):290-302. [6] Li S., Zhang Q. & Lu Y. (2025). Synergistic mechanisms of county-level urbanization and industrialization under urban-rural integration. Journal of Huazhong Agricultural University (Social Sciences Edition), 02, 1-14. [7] Pan Z., Wang Z. & Wei L. (2024). Revision of population urbanization rate based on China’s provincial data. Statistics & Decision, 40(1), 46-51. [8] Ke J., Jia Y & Zhou Y. (2023). Simulation and projection of urbanization rate and sex ratio trends in China." Inner Mongolia Science Technology & Economy, 10, 3-5. [9] Hu A. (2023). Prediction of urbanization rate and main spatial form of urban agglomerations in China in 2035. Journal of Technology Economics 42(5), 174-188. [10]Du X. & Zhang Y. (2022). Driving-force decomposition increase of China’s urbanization rate increase and trend forecast in the New Development Stage: a new method based on international comparison. Statistical Research, 39(02), 33-47.