Spatial and Temporal Distribution Characteristics of Drought in Jilin Province Based on SPEI

DOI: https://doi.org/10.62517/jnse.202417101

Author(s)

Ruixiang Song1, Tian Li1, Lifang Song1, Xinjing Zhang2,*, Xiyu Zhang3, Ying Liu4

Affiliation(s)

1Jilin Meteorological Service Centre, Changchun, Jilin, 130062, China 2Jilin Meteorological Information Network Centre, Changchun, Jilin, 130062, China 3Jilin Shengcai Meteorological Technology Co., Ltd, Changchun, Jilin, 130062, China 4Jilin Zhonghe Big Data Technology Co., Ltd, Changchun, Jilin, 130062, China *Corresponding Author.

Abstract

To investigate the variations in the Jilin Province's drought over time, both in terms of time and space, this study used the monthly precipitation data from 47 stations in Jilin Province for 58 years (1961-2018) and estimated the potential evapotranspiration at each station using the Thorn Thwaite method. The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) was calculated for the region, and based on this, the frequency of drought occurrence(FDO) was analyzed for the entire year, each season, and different drought levels. The Mann-Kendall test and Rotation Empirical Orthogonal Function (REOF) analysis were employed to explore the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of drought in Jilin Province over the past 58 years. The findings indicated that: (1) The Jilin Province experienced an annual drought frequency (DF) ranging from 22% to 40%. The average frequency of the following drought levels was observed: The order of drought intensity is mild, moderate, severe, and extreme. At the seasonal scale, drought occurrence frequencies were relatively high in all four seasons, with higher frequencies in summer, autumn, and winter compared to spring. (2) The annual average SPEI in Jilin Province showed an overall decreasing trend(DT), with a rate of -0.0072·a-1 per year, indicating a tendency towards aridification in the region. The trend in spring SPEI change was the smallest among the four seasons, while autumn showed the highest DT, and winter exhibited the most significant trend towards wetter conditions. (3) The REOF analysis divided Jilin Province into four drought characteristic regions: northwest, central, south, and east. After 1992, the northwest region experienced a notable shift from wet to dry conditions, with an increasing trend(IT) towards aridification. The central region showed no significant trend in time coefficients, while the time coefficients in the eastern region exhibited intermittent changes. The southern region showed no apparent trend in time coefficients, but the frequency of drought occurrence increased after 1997, indicating a worsening trend of aridification.

Keywords

Jilin Province; SPEI; Temporal and Spatial Distribution of Drought; REOF; Division into Districts

References

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