Research on the Prediction and Implementation Path of Carbon Peaking in Daqing City

DOI: https://doi.org/10.62517/jse.202411605

Author(s)

Qi Yu1, Guihong Fan2

Affiliation(s)

1Qinhuangdao Campus, Northeast Petroleum University, Qinhuangdao, China 2Heilongjiang Bayi Agricultural University, Daqing, Heilongjiang, China

Abstract

This study selects carbon emission data from Daqing City from 2001 to 2023 as the subject of analysis, employs the STIRPAT model and ridge regression method to decompose the key factors affecting carbon emissions, and combines scenario analysis to construct 32 different combined scenarios to predict the carbon emissions and peak time of Daqing City from 2024 to 2035. the study results show that the factors affecting carbon emissions are generally positively correlated with Daqing City; Under the baseline scenario, Daqing City is expected to reach its carbon emission peak in 2030, while under single and combined pathway scenarios, Daqing is likely to achieve carbon peak as early as 2025. Based on the analysis and prediction results, propose suggestions in both industry and technology aspects, to take the lead in achieving carbon peak.

Keywords

Daqing City; Ridge Regression; STIRPAT Model; Scenario Analysis Method; Carbon Peak

References

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