Analysis of Influencing Factors of China's Cotton Current Price Fluctuation

DOI: https://doi.org/10.62517/jse.202611106

Author(s)

Dianang Cai1, Wen Yu2,3,4,5,*, Chengshuo Zhao2,6, Meng Li7

Affiliation(s)

1School of Mathematics and Statistics, Beijing Technology and Business University, Beijing, China 2Agricultural Information Institute, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing, China 3Key Laboratory of Agricultural Information Service Technology, Ministry of Agriculture, Beijing, China 4Key Laboratory of Intelligent Agricultural Early Warning Technology and System, Beijing, China 5Beijing Engineering Research Center for Agricultural Monitoring and Early Warning, Beijing, China 6Graduate School of Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing, China 7National Food and Strategic Reserves Data Center, Beijing, China *Corresponding Author

Abstract

Domestic cotton spot prices are influenced by a complex set of factors. Based on monthly time series data from January 2015 to August 2024, this paper examines the relationships between China’s cotton spot price and four key variables: futures price, international cotton price, import price, and yarn price. The analysis employs correlation analysis, ADF unit root testing, cointegration testing, and a distributed lag model to identify both short-term dynamics and long-term equilibrium effects. The results indicate a high degree of correlation among the five cotton-related price series, with evidence of a stable long-run equilibrium relationship. Among the variables studied, futures prices exert the strongest impact on spot prices. Yarn prices and the main contract price of Zhengzhou cotton futures are found to have a significant positive influence on the fluctuations of China’s cotton spot price.

Keywords

Domestic High-Quality Cotton; Cotton Current Price; Futures; Exchange Rate

References

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