The Impact of RMB Exchange Rate Fluctuations on China's Tea Export Trade

DOI: https://doi.org/10.62517/jse.202611201

Author(s)

Liqing Zheng1, Yajie Wang1,2,*

Affiliation(s)

1School of Finance, Zhuhai College of Science and Technology, Zhuhai, China 2School of Management, Harbin Institute of Technology, Harbin, China *Corresponding Author

Abstract

This paper employs multiple linear regression and correlation analysis to investigate the impact of RMB exchange rate fluctuations on China's tea exports using annual data from 2002 to 2024. The findings reveal distinct stage effects. During 2005-2014, depreciation promoted export expansion; post the “811 Exchange Rate Reform” in 2015, the direct exchange rate effect diminished due to marketization, structural upgrading, and diversification. While strongly positively correlated with export volume, the exchange rate has a limited impact on export value, largely buffered by exporters' pricing strategies. Results also show export volume is the core driver of export value growth, while market demand indicators exert significant negative effects. We propose recommendations to enhance the high-quality development of China's tea exports.

Keywords

RMB Exchange Rate Fluctuations; Tea Export Trade; Stage Characteristics; Influencing Factors of Trade

References

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