Education Competition, Fertility Decline, and Actuarial Risk Transformation in China

DOI: https://doi.org/10.62517/jse.202611317

Author(s)

Xintong Chen

Affiliation(s)

FBE, The University of Melbourne, Actuarial Studies, Melbourne, Victoria 3053, Australia

Abstract

China's low fertility is no longer only a demographic issue; it can also reshape insurance risk pools, liability duration, reinsurance pressure, and pension sustainability. This article treats education competition as a potential upstream constraint on fertility choice and translates the resulting demographic shift into actuarial language. Using annual China observations for 2010-2024, it combines a Gaokao-based education-competition proxy, Ridge shrinkage, leave-one-out cross-validation, permutation importance, bootstrap sign stability, and scenario indices for annuity reserves and pay-as-you-go pension pressure. The education proxy remains negatively associated with fertility in the benchmark model, with a standardized coefficient near -0.360, a permutation-importance probability near 0.035, and bootstrap sign stability of 1.00. Scenario results indicate a gradual shift from young-family mortality exposure toward longevity, health, care, annuity, and pension risk. The evidence is predictive and scenario-based rather than causal or company-level reserving evidence.

Keywords

Education Competition; Fertility Decline; Gaokao Applicants; Actuarial Risk; Pension Pressure

References

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