Forecasting Supply and Demand Balance of Agricultural Products Market Before and After the Epidemic in China Based on SARIMA Model and Optimizing Industry Chain Integration

DOI: https://doi.org/10.62517/jlsa.202507402

Author(s)

Liqun Zhu

Affiliation(s)

Department of Economics, The University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW 2006, Australia

Abstract

Since the outbreak of the new crown epidemic, it has had a far-reaching impact on the supply-demand relationship and the operation of the industrial chain in China's agricultural products market. The epidemic restricted rural labor mobility, delaying sowing. Moreover, strict prevention measures limited transportation, resulting in poor circulation of agricultural products. On the other hand, the problem of mismatch between supply and demand has caused more irregular changes in the price of agricultural products, which directly affects the consumer's purchasing behavior. Farmers and enterprises in the market will also be subject to information asymmetry and other problems of interference, and thus can not make accurate judgments about the market situation they face. Therefore, based on the SARIMA time series model, this paper models and predicts the supply and demand data of China's major agricultural markets in the year before and after the epidemic. Specific strategies for the integration and optimization of the agricultural industry chain from production, distribution and consumption are proposed, aiming to optimize the structure of agricultural production through accurate forecasting, and to improve the industry's risk-resistant ability and market adjustment efficiency. The study provides important theoretical support and practical reference for the government and enterprises to deal with emergencies.

Keywords

SARIMA; Supply and Demand Balance; Industrial Chain Integration and Optimization; Price Fluctuation; Information Asymmetry

References

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